By John Kerr, Matt Boyd, & Nick Wilson (Blog crossposted from PHCC ‘the Briefing‘) TLDR/Summary: There is increasing concern over catastrophic threats such as nuclear conflict, engineered pandemics, and emerging technologies including artificial intelligence. Our just published survey research shows New Zealanders want their government to take these risks seriously.
The following is a transcript of our invited presentation to the Environment Canterbury regional council on 10 Sept 2025 as part of Council’s external speaker series and in support of a food resilience strategy. You can click to watch the recorded version which is followed by Q&A with the councillors.
Background New Zealand public sector agencies must prepare a ‘long-term insights briefing’ every three years. This is an opportunity to look beyond short-term political cycles and use foresight to see what really matters to New Zealand over the longer course.
TLDR/Summary Two critical government consultations The New Zealand government has called for submissions on drafts of two major plans pertaining to national infrastructure and fuel security. The NZ Infrastructure Commission and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) have asked how we can future-proof the systems that keep our country running. Our non-partisan independent … Continue reading "Building Real Resilience: Our Submissions on NZ’s Fuel and Infrastructure Plans"
[Media Release by University of Otago] This blog cross-posts a University of Otago media release about our recent research: Many former leaders of the world’s nine nuclear-armed nations were impaired by health conditions while in office, raising concerns over their decision-making abilities while they had access to nuclear weapon launch codes, a study from the University of Otago, New Zealand, has found.
New US National Academy of Sciences Report reveals the complex web of societal vulnerabilities that could amplify nuclear war’s devastating impact TLDR/Summary The US National Academy of Sciences has just released a comprehensive report on the “Environmental Effects of Nuclear War”. This work extends analysis beyond physical damage to examine impacts on human social and economic systems.
TLDR/Summary Introduction I attended the European Urban Resilience Forum (Rotterdam, June 25-27), which brought together city leaders, policy makers, and resilience practitioners grappling with an uncomfortable reality: traditional approaches to climate adaptation may no longer be sufficient in an era of converging and interacting global risks. Rotterdam’s vice-mayor discussed life six metres below sea level, … Continue reading "Think Beyond Climate: What New Zealand Can Learn from the European Urban Resilience Forum 2025"
A Tale of Two Conferences Part II: ASRA ‘Currents of Change’ Symposium 2025 (In-depth read, 15 min) TLDR/Summary Part II of a two-part blog series reporting on a pair of crisis/disaster risk conferences – this one covers the ASRA ‘Currents of Change’ Symposium, which offered a refreshing contrast to the UN’s symptom-focused approach detailed in Part I. ASRA brought systems
A Tale of Two Conferences Part I: UNDRR Global Platform 2025 (In-depth read, 18 min) TLDR/Summary The 2025 UN Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction The costs of disasters continue to spiral upward. In 2020 alone, direct disaster losses reached $200 billion annually, but when cascading and ecosystem impacts are included, the true cost balloons … Continue reading "The Hard Landing Ahead – Why Current Disaster Strategies Are Doomed to Fail"
By Matt Boyd (Adapt Research Ltd & Islands for the Future of Humanity) (15 min read) TLDR/Summary Introduction In 1983 US President Ronald Reagan viewed two commercial films that influenced his thinking and subsequent US policy on nuclear weapons. The films were The Day After and WarGames. After watching WarGames, in which a computer hacker … Continue reading "Fictional Catastrophes, Reel Lessons: What 12 Critically Acclaimed Films Reveal About Surviving Global Catastrophes"
By Adapt Research & Islands for the Future of Humanity TLDR/Summary Our new research demonstrates that with relatively modest investments and strategic planning focused on urban/near-urban agriculture and local biofuel production, New Zealand could significantly enhance its food security resilience during global catastrophes. Our new research on urban and near urban agriculture for food security … Continue reading "Catastrophe-Proof Food Security for New Zealand: Blending Near-urban Agriculture, Strategic Crop Selection, and Biofuels as Insurance against Global Catastrophes"