The NZCat Team has a vision for a secure New Zealand, resilient to large scale global disruptions and catastrophic risks. We’ve been researching anticipatory governance of risk, the process of effective national risk assessment, and we’ve published peer-reviewed research on specific risks such as pandemics, nuclear war, massive volcanic eruption, and risks from artificial intelligence.

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR The world continues to face biological threats Major health crises beyond the Covid-19 pandemic are almost certain in the future. The risks include pandemic influenza or a new infectious disease, as well as deliberate biological attacks or accidental release of agents used in biodefence research.   The world may have … Continue reading "Ready or Not? New research on the Global Health Security Index and implications for pandemic preparedness"

By Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson To hedge against major global catastrophe such as nuclear war/winter, New Zealand needs to invest in planning. We need resilience infrastructure as well as resilient infrastructure – there is an important distinction. Preparation would also help reduce climate emissions and mitigate a range of other risks.

By Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, & Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR Technical paper in Scientific Reports here Summary video Risk of nuclear war The risk of nuclear war is plausibly rising due to geopolitical tensions, active warfare, expansion and modernisation of arsenals, and erosion of international arms control agreements. Some nations would be devastated by direct targeting … Continue reading "Food for thought: Frost resistant crops to hedge against the impacts of nuclear winter"

NZCat The Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) is developing an evidence base and policy agenda for resilience to major global catastrophe. Anyone with expert knowledge pertaining to NZ can contribute by completing the NZCat Survey. If you know about NZ transport, energy, food, water, ICT, economy, trade, resilience, or any other aspect of NZ society, then we would value your perspective.

By Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR Risk and Resilience In the wake of shocks such as Covid-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Cyclone Gabrielle, and many other recent events, resilience has become a central concern for industry and government. Many organisations, including the Ministry of Transport, the Productivity Commission and the New Zealand Infrastructure … Continue reading "Risk and Resilience in the Face of Global Catastrophe: A Closer Look at New Zealand’s Food Security"

The New Zealand Government asked the Productivity Commission to undertake an inquiry into the resilience of the New Zealand economy to supply chain disruptions. The major risks to New Zealand are those that arise elsewhere and impact the entire world. Adapt Research and the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) have made a detailed submission to this inquiry.

Summary/TLDR Risk and New Zealand Risk analysis will be topical in New Zealand in 2023 argues a recent opinion by former NZ Chief Science Adviser Sir Peter Gluckman and Dr Anne Bardsley: Risk listening: rethinking how we understand and manage risk Ongoing disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic, and more recently extreme weather in the form … Continue reading "Yes, NZ needs a systematic National Risk Assessment; but we must not repeat others’ mistakes"

By Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR: This post is a partial and high-level summary of our research paper on national risk assessment (NRA) published in the academic journal Risk Analysis in March 2023. This post also places our work in the context of another recent report on NRA identifying common ground. Consider reading our … Continue reading "Revolutionising National Risk Assessment (NRA): improved methods and stakeholder engagement to tackle global catastrophe and existential risks"

Nick Wilson & Matt Boyd Summary / TLDR: Our Study of the 1815 Mt Tambora eruption Catastrophes such as nuclear war and large magnitude volcanic eruptions could fill the stratosphere with sun-blocking material such as soot or sulphur dioxide. Island nations may have potential long-term survival value for humanity in such sun-blocking catastrophes. We aimed … Continue reading "A Historical Volcanic Winter & Future Sunlight-Blocking Catastrophes: New Study"

Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson TLDR *Note: some readers report this hyperlink not working, the url is: https://adaptresearchwriting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/230215-nuclear-war-hazard-profile-nz-1.pdf Resilience: NZ’s Bread & Butter Global catastrophic risks such as nuclear war could result in long-term harm on a global scale, with profound disruption to our way of life in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Other global … Continue reading "Workshop on Nuclear War/Winter & NZ: Wellbeing of millions and $1 trillion plus at risk, strategic resilience must become bread & butter NZ policy"